Pakistan Rich in Natural Resources But Poor in Management

  

Outline

1-  Introduction

2-  Natural Resources and their management

3-  Richness / abundance of natural resources in Pakistan

4-  Pakistan's natural resources and their mismanagement

 

a) Energy resources i- Nonrenewable energy resources a. Oil and Gas reserves

b. Coal reserves

 

ii- Renewable energy resources a. Wind and solar power

b. Hydropower

 

b) Agricultural resources i- Irrigation Network ii- Fertile Land iii- Variety of Crops iv- Animal Husbandry v- Fishing

 

c)  Mineral Ore Resources

i. Copper and gold resources. ii. Salt mines and other minerals

 

d) Human resources

i. Sixth Largest Population in the World ii. Youth comprising major chuck

 

5- Factors leading to poor management / Governance a) Political instability/ rivalry,

b)  Lack of vision and planning,

c)  Flawed policies,

d)  Bureaucratic bottlenecks and corruption,

e)  Worsened Law and order situation,

 

6-  Implications of mismanagement of natural resources

7-  Way forward

8-  Conclusion

 

 

Pakistan is one of the richest countries in the world in terms of natural resources but also one of the poorest among them in their management. The country is abundant in the vital resources including that of energy, agriculture, minerals, population, and geography, but unlike the developed countries, these have not been properly exploited due to poor management. This dismayed situation is caused due to several, both chronic and acute, flaws which have led to poor governance of country since its inception except some brief spells of economic prosperity. Prevalent political rivalry and instability, worsening law and order and rampant corruption have catalyzed the situation to resource development impasse. Contrary to economic potential of its natural resources, Pakistan is a depending on foreign aid and debt, it is facing deficit in trade, acute energy crisis to run industry, and water stress for agriculture, to name a few challenges.

 

However, the daunting challenges and the mounting public pressure caused due to awareness of civil society are increasingly influencing the political decision making. Eventually, there is sign of hope for devising effective strategy to exploit the natural resource wealth of the country for its self sufficiency and viable economic development. It is suffice to say that the proper exploitation of this wealth would lead to the prosperity of this nation.

 

Before discussing what natural resources Pakistan possesses, it is important to understand what constitutes natural resources. These occur naturally within environments characterised by amounts of biodiversity and geodiversity existent in various ecosystems. Some resources like water and agriculture are essential for survival of inhabitants while others like energy and minerals are secondary in nature but essential for economic development. However, efficient management of these resources is vital to achieve prosperity of nation. Natural resource management is a discipline with a particular focus on how management affects the quality of life for both present and future generations. It is interrelated with the concept of sustainable development. Pakistan is blessed with huge quantity of resources but lags in management.

 

Being situated at one of the best geographic and geostrategic locations on the map of world, Pakistan is affluent in the natural resources. It has enormous energy surplus resource potential of both renewable and nonrenewable, which is greater than that of oil rich countries of Gulf. Among the world's 200 plus countries it has the second largest salt mines, second largest coal reserves, fifth largest copper and gold reserves, seventh largest wheat and rice production capacity. It is the sixth most populous country in the world having large share of young population. Had these resources been properly managed, this country would have been one of the richest economies of world. The detailed account of the natural wealth of Pakistan shows how such great potential has been untapped due to mismanagement.

 

There are plenty of nonrenewable energy resources like oil, gas and coal in Pakistan. It has more than 436.2 million barrels of oil, according to CIA World Fact Book, and 31.3 trillion cubic feet of proven gas reserves. The current oil production is 65,997 barrels per day while gas production is 4 billion cubic feet per day. Though it is not enough to meet the needs, it can save considerable outflow of currency. Moreover, there is resource potential of 27 billion Barrels of Oil and 282 TCF of gas reserves in the country which has not been explored due to lack of vision and flawed policies.

 

Pakistan has world's second largest coal deposits of 185 billion tons. These are estimated to be equivalent to 618 billion barrels of crude oil. This is more than twice if we compare it with oil reserves of Saudi Arabia. If it is converted into oil by gasification, it will generate 650 barrels of crude oil which at an average market rate of eighty dollars per barrel, would generate 5.2 trillion dollars. But the policy making elite of the country has not only been oblivious to the potential but also indifferent to the slow pace of efforts to harness this source for energy production and exports. The energy deficit is badly affecting the industry in country but no any serious initiative is taken for electricity production from coal. China imports its 65 percent of coal requirements but despite being 'all weather friend', this giant energy importing economy does not import coal from Pakistan.

 

Besides, the geography of Pakistan enriches it with the renewable energy resources. Wind and

Solar energy are other unused lifelines of Pakistan. 1046 km long coastal line gives potential of 40000 MW of electricity. The vast lands of Balochistan can be utilized for solar electricity generation. But unfortunately these resources have barely been used due to technological backwardness and lack of innovative policies.

 

The hydropower potential of the country is also enough to satisfy the needs of energy. Only 33 percent of around 20,000 MW generation capacity is produced from this resource which has the potential of producing 40,000 MW. No concrete steps have been taken to harness this resource mainly because of political differences and distrust prevailing in the country.

 

The lack of vision and policy planning in utilisation of water resource is also severely affecting agriculture. Despite having one of the largest irrigation systems of the world, Pakistan is facing water scarcity for crops. Storage capacity of water reservoirs is quickly depleting because of annual sediment inflow and a substantial quantum of available water is lost in seepage as the canals have not been cemented. Out of 77 million acres cultivable area, only 55.5 million acres have been ploughed. The country is blessed with four seasons and variety of crops but due to lack of research the productivity remains low.

 

In addition, being an agricultural country it possesses tremendous scope of animal husbandry. Pakistan's breeds of cow like Sahiwal cow are the best breeds of world. Due care to this area can lead to bulk of exports in dairy products. On other hand, fishing industry has an important role to play in national economy of Pakistan. The coast line of 814 km provides ample opportunity to enhance this industry, but poor performance and poor presentation of our cause in WTO have put this industry at the verge of destruction.

 

The minerals are also vital natural resources available in great quantity. Pakistan has fifth largest copper and gold reserves in the world. The Riko deq project, copper and gold reservoir, have been estimated to be worth of 260 billion dollars, which is ten times the all financial aid received from USA in last sixty year. But instead of exploiting own resources for economic independence, country has been dependent on foreign aid. How rich Pakistan is, and how poor Pakistanis are! There are other partially untapped resources of rock salts, Gypsum, lime stone, iron, marble, and silica sand in large quantities. These resources have not been exploited due to corruption and bottlenecks in political and bureaucratic culture.

 

The most important of the natural resources in this globalized world is human resource. Pakistan

is the sixth most populous country in the world having large share of 'young population' i.e. 63 percent below age of 25 years, according to United Nations Development Programme. But the failed policies have caused mounting unemployment of 15 percent. The resource which could be used to enhance the economic activity is left to no use which is adding to the increase in poverty. The lack of opportunities leading to the brain drain of talented minds has further worsened the situation.

 

The above analysis reveals that Pakistan is not poor, but poorly managed country. The factors which have caused the poor management of natural resources include political instability, political indecision making / divergence, lack of vision and planning, flawed policies, bureaucratic bottlenecks and corruption, lack of human resource development, worsened law and order situation. These factors have led not only to the poor management of natural resources but also to the poor governance of country.

 

The political instability has been the main cause of such mayhem. Since the independence, no political group in Pakistan has been given enough time to be mature. The military interference in politics and rivalry among political stakeholders are the key features of brief history of this country. This inconsistency has kept the exploitation of natural wealth unattended. The divergence of opinion on construction of water resources has deprived the country of storing the surplus water for agriculture and electricity generation. However, this could be overcome by vision and planning, which is a scarce commodity here. Instead of controversial big dams several small reservoirs could be constructed, had a pragmatic approach prevailed among the decision making machinery.

 

Coupled with this, the flawed policies of successive governments have caused tremendous problems despite availability of adequate resources. The energy sector is a vivid example of such poor management. The major chunk of the electricity is produced through thermal generation for which almost 80 percent of oil is imported. Whereas the second largest treasure of coal in the world is left unexplored as it contributes only 2 percent of electricity generation. Countries like US, China and India generate electricity by almost 60 percent from coal due to its lower cost. This shows how other countries take cost of electricity generation into serious consideration.

 

However, it would be unfair to put all the burden of poor resource management on the political factors. The bureaucratic bottlenecks and corruption have been equally responsible for this undesirable scenario. Several hydro power projects, Thar coal project, and oil exploration projects are in doldrums due to bureaucratic bottlenecks. There is no headway in solar and wind energy projects planned by Alternative Energy Development Board. Similarly, corruption has also been extremely detrimental. The standstill in the Riko deq project is an example of this case. Pakistan is ranked at 34 in Corruption Perception Index 2010 by Transparency International, which is a discouraging factor for foreign direct investment.

 

In addition, the worsened law and order situation has caused severe blow to the economy in general and natural resource management in particular. The volatile situation in Balochistan is harmful to the exploitation of resources. The Gawadar port, despite being located at crucial location, has not been made fully functional. Other projects of mineral exploration are also affected. The terrorism in the northern areas has been harmful for the potential tourism industry.

 

These factors of poor management have placed Pakistan in an undesirable situation domestically and internationally. The socio-economic situation remains gloomy as the GDP growth rate is one of the lowest in South Asia at 2.2 percent, trade deficit is estimated about $16 billion, inflation rate continues to be in double digits at 15 percent, population below poverty line is alarmingly around 35 percent, and unemployment is at 15 percent.

 

Also, it does not enjoy a favorable position among the comity of nations. It is ranked 123rd out of 139 countries in Global Competitive Index; it is at 134th among 192 in Human development Index by UNDP; and it occupies the critical position of 12th in Failed States Index 2011 issued by Foreign Policy Magazine.

 

The country has been economically dependent on foreign aid and debt, which has adversely affected her standing in international community. However, despite Pakistan's crucial role in west's geostrategic framework and war on terror, the allies end up donating small amounts of grants which make fractions of what could be obtained from exploiting own natural resources. The external debts and liabilities have nearly doubled from $ 37 billion in year 2000, to $ 59.5 billion in year 2011.

 

Nevertheless, the worst impact so far is the energy crises in Pakistan. There is serious shortfall of electricity, gas and oil. Electricity demand exceeds supply and “load shedding” is a common phenomenon. The shortfall of electricity reaches at 4000-5000 MW which badly affected industry, eventually leading to decreased exports and diminished economic activity.

 

These adverse implications, of the extremely poor management of resources, on the economy and society in the country, warrant a serious approach and comprehensive strategy to reverse the trend. The pragmatic approach and policy direction can help the country to be able to rely on its own resources instead of dependency.

 

Pakistani leadership must focus on exploration of natural resources and their scientific management. Properly managed natural resources can become instrumental in national income and its growth. Extensive geological survey is required to discover the resource potential, planning and vision is needed to explore the proved but untapped resources and effective strategy is essential to fully exploit the resources under use.

 

In order to take maximum benefits from natural resources there is the need of technical education of people involved in resource exploitation and management. The technical education ensures that there is minimum wastage of the resources. Hence, such education should be made compulsory for the people in concerned areas of activity.

 

On the other hand, the politicians, policy makers and all the stake holders must adopt a rational approach not to politicize natural resources. It should be prioritized as the vital national interest and dealt with as such. The controversies on the management of water and mineral resources must be resolved pragmatically for best interest of the nation.

 

Last but not the least, worsened law and order situation in Pakistan, which has led to the lack of investment, must be checked. The private firms engaged in resource exploration must be protected by the state. Ensuring the security, would attract investment in the respective areas which would subsequently guarantee the inflow of capital in the national economy and the resource potential could be fully exploited.

 

It needs not to be emphasised that Pakistan is not poor but poor management of its natural resources has made it so. The enormous natural resources of all kinds like energy, minerals, agriculture, and human could have made this country a wealthy economy. Instead, there been bleak picture of economy and undesirable image outside due to the chronic flaws in vision and policies. Thus, the daunting challenge of poor management of natural resources direly needs to be addressed not only to overcome the perils caused due to it but also to achieve economic self sufficiency and prosperity of the nation. By surpassing this challenge, Pakistan is destined to have eminence place in the world as a stable, growing and prosperous nation.

Global energy crisis and its Effects

  

Outline

1.  Introduction

2.  What is energy crisis?

3.  Share of energy resources in energy supply

a)  Non-renewable

b)  Renewable

 

4.  World consumption distribution

5.  World production distribution

6.  Causes of crises

a)  Surge in demand

b)  Resource nationalism – tighter supply

c)  Political uncertainty

d)  Lack of diversity

 

7. Impact of crises

a)  Economy

b)  Politics

c)  Development

 

8.     Environmental concerns

9.     Way out: Renewable energy

10.  Conclusion

 

 

Man is dependent on energy, which has been the key to his rapid industrial growth and technological development. The pace of development after industrial revolution is unprecedented. Just 200 years ago, the world experienced energy revolution that launched the industrial age. The catalyst to this epochal change was ordinary black coal - an energy rich hydrocarbon. A century later, oil and gas were added to satiate the thirst of industry. Man still relies mainly on these fossil fuels.

 

Nevertheless many other sources of energy: hydro, solar, nuclear, wind, geothermal, biogas and wave have been taped. These sources of energy are not only renewable but clean as well. Since the hydrocarbons are exhaustible and their use also threatens human health and environment; this fact has necessitated transformation from non-renewable energy resources to renewable and clean energy resources so that economic growth could be sustained and environmental degradation could be prevented.

 

Energy is not only vital for the industry but it is also the life blood of our daily life. The consumption of fossil fuels has increased manifolds due to rapid industrialisation of developing countries like China and India. However, the major proportion of hydrocarbon is consumed by already developed countries like the US, Japan and Western European states. The fossil fuels are also the main source of energy for heating of houses and running motor vehicles and generation of electricity. Since the demand has been increased far more than the increase in the production of fossil fuels, a disproportionate imbalance between the demand and supply has been created which has resulted in energy crisis.

 

If the fossil fuel production remains constant, it is estimated that the reserves will be depleted soon. The oil crisis of 2008, when petrol prices soared to $150 a barrel, was an early symptom of such scenario. The increasing demand coupled with speculations of depletion of fossil fuels caused sky rocketing rise in the prices, which was the principal catalyst behind economic crises in the world.

 

The energy crises are caused due to disproportionate dependence on non-renewable energy resources fossil fuels. The hydrocarbons; coal oil and gas together constitute 85 per cent of the world’s total energy supply. Their respective share is oil 37 per cent; coal 25 per cent and gas 23 per cent (total 85 per cent).

 

On the other hand the renewable resources of energy; hydro, solar, wind, nuclear, geothermal, biogas and wave constitute only 15 per cent of global share of energy supply. These are also clean sources of energy. Despite their enormous benefits, the renewable sources of energy have not been exploited sufficiently due to many reasons. The reasons may include technological barriers, initial cost and political compulsions. Both the least developed and developing countries mainly face technological backwardness and barriers, while the developed countries have been too slow and reluctant to transfer their technology due to the higher cost and political reasons.

 

The world distribution of energy consumption reveals that the most developed countries are the highest consumers of fossil fuels. The US, which is the most advanced country technologically and richest economically, consumes 25 per cent of the total world energy output while its population makes only five per cent of the world. This makes America the highest per capita energy consuming nation. Second comes Japan, which consumes six per cent. The Western European countries which are also technologically advanced consume 15 per cent of the world energy. China, a growing economy, consumes nine per cent of the world energy resources. However, the rest of the world consumes only 45 per cent of energy production.

 

This consumption is in sharp contrast to the production in respect of regional distribution. As the US has only 2.4 per cent of world oil reserves and 3.5 per cent of gas reserves, Japan imports 75 per cent of its energy needs, China imports more than 50 per cent of its energy needs. The largest fossil fuel reserves are located in Middle East and Russia. The Arab countries possess 61 per cent of oil reserves of the world but they are not big consumers. This uneven distribution of consumption and production is the one cause of energy crisis. Other three causes behind the global energy crisis include surge in demand, tighter supply, political uncertainty in oil producing countries and lack of the diversity of resources. These factors are:

 

One, the demand of energy resources have surged throughout the world. In 1970, the total consumption of world was 204 Quadrillion BTU which doubled in 2000 to 402 Quadrillion BTU and is now around 500 QBTU higher. It is projected that the energy demand by 2030 will be increased by 50 per cent.

 

As the economy of world is mainly dependent upon fossil fuel energy, the demand of oil and gas is increasing tremendously. Let’s take example of China has more than doubled its oil use over the past decade to 5.55 million barrel a day. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has reported that China oil needs could almost double to 11 million barrels a day by 2020. Same is the case with India, the largest growing economy in South Asia. The Central Asian and South American countries have also multiplied their consumption due to rapid industrialisation.

 

Two, the supply of oil and gas are mainly dependent upon the capacity to pump from the reserves. Though, the Organisation of Oil Exploring Countries (OPEC) boosted the supply during the peak crisis in 2008 but that was not enough to meet the demand of the market. Another factor determining the oil supplies is the volatile price mechanism. As the speculations cause increase in the prices, the oil producing countries get higher profits. This trend has led to new political concept– Resource nationalism. The international firms have found themselves faced with tougher terms and shut out of globe’s most promising oil basins.

 

Third, the supply of hydrocarbons is also affected by the political condition in the resource countries. Unfortunately, the political conditions in all the oil producing regions are volatile. It was painfully felt by the western world when Arab leaders clamped an oil embargo on the US in retaliation to Washington’s support of Israel in the 1973 Middle East war. Even today the conditions in this region are not stable. The US forces are occupying Iraq in order to secure oil supplies. Iran is facing sanctions due to nuclear imbroglio with the West. Russia is also at odds with Europe on the gas supplies. Hugo Chavez is busy in consolidating power in Venezuela where he is facing the US-backed political opposition. The Central Asian States have their own internal political turmoil.

 

Fourth, nature has bestowed man with infinite resources of energy but man has made himself dependent on the finite resources. The lack of diversity of resources is the chief cause of energy crises. Instead of harnessing new technology, the industrial growth in developing countries is increasingly dependent on fossil fuels.

 

Such importance of energy has made it important element in the foreign policies of the independent states. The 20th century and dawn of the 21st century have seen wars fought for oil. In 1977, CIA prepared a plan “Go to war to get oil” and subsequently, the US went to war with Iraq in 1991Gulf war. America is again there for the same purpose.

 

Similarly China’s foreign policy towards many regions of the world particularly Africa, the Middle East and Caspian Sea region, oil holds a critical status. China’s vibrant policies in these regions are being watchfully monitored by Washington. This is also true for South Asian region. Pakistan is engaged with Iran for gas pipeline project and is equally interested in the Caspian Sea region – Central Asian States.

 

Besides these conflicts, the fossil fuels cause havoc to our environment. The hydrocarbons are the chief source of green house gases-carbon dioxide, Methane, fluorine, which cause global warning. Burning coal accounts for 43 per cent of carbon emissions. Oil and gas account for another 40 per cent of emissions of CO2.

 

Fears of global warning aside, burning fossil fuel releases chemicals and particulates that cause cancer, brain and nerve damage, birth defects, lung injury, and breathing problems. The toxics released by combusting hydrocarbons pollute the air and water and causes acid rain and smog. These negative implications of burning fossil fuels on human environment and life make it incumbent upon man to diversify the energy resources.

 

Man also needs to realise that the fossil fuel energy is limited and would be depleted. Hennery Kissinger had said, “The amount of energy is finite ………. And competition for access to energy can become the life and death for many societies”.

 

First; the solar energy, the basic source of energy, can be converged and converted into different ways, such as simple water heating for domestic use or by the direct conversion of sunlight to electrical energy using mirrors, boilers or photovoltaic cells. Currently only 0.5 per cent of the world energy supply is obtained from this source.

 

Second; humans have been harnessing the wind for thousands of years and have succeeded in producing electricity from it. Air flowing through turbines or spinning blades generates power that can be used to pump water or generate electricity. At present, the wind energy constitutes 0.3 per cent of world energy supply but it has a great potential. Germany is producing 23000 MW from wind, which is more than Pakistan’s total installed electricity generation capacity. Like solar energy it is also a clean source of energy. According to the US Department of Energy the world’s winds could supply more than 15 times its current energy demand.

 

Third; hydroelectric power is another source of renewable energy in the natural water cycle. The flow of streams can be manipulated by construction of dams at higher altitudes and the kinetic energy of waterfall is used to rotate the turbines to make electricity. This is the very cheaper source and clean form of energy.

 

Fourth; atomic energy is hailed as panacea to pollution problems generated by fossil fuels, and is destined to be the cheapest source of energy. However, it is also limited and has hazardous effects on human health. But given the potential of energy and the capacity of technology to safeguard the nuclear plants, it is the quickest option to solve the energy crises in the world as one nuclear pellet (finger) produces energy equivalent to 17000 cubic feet of natural gas.

 

Fifth; biomass is also a potential source of energy. Humans have been burning biomass materials since the dawn of time. It has been recently discovered to produce clean combustible gas from waste products such as sewerage and crop residue. Many countries have also invested in biofuels. However, this is counter-productive as it induced rise in food prices, therefore only bio waste should be used for energy production.

 

Sixth; another alternate source of oil is methanol – a clear colourless liquid made from natural gas, coal industrial garbage. This is a reliable source of fuel for automobiles as it is cheaper and far easier to be produced in bulk.

 

Seventh; geothermal energy can be used with heat pumps to warm a buildings or swimming pools in winter. This can lessen the need for other power to maintain comfortable temperatures in buildings, particularly in countries having very cold winters.

 

Eighth; hydrogen has been touted as the fuel of the future. It is most abundant element known in the universe and can be burnt as a fuel for vehicles and industry. If this form of energy is taped at a larger scale, it will eventually become society’s primary energy carrier in the 21st century.

 

The media and industry claim that renewable energies are not yet economically competitive fossil fuels. Perhaps not; but given the health and environmental costs, and limit of fossil fuels, the price of renewable energy is only viable option. However, no renewable energy form will single handedly replace oil, but together they will become a very important part of the energy mix of the future.

 

As the demand of energy is set to grow rapidly during next 20 years the supply of energy is going to decline, which could give rise to competition and conflict coupled with economic instability. Meanwhile, human environmental and health hazards could become irrecoverable. Therefore, man should strive for energy independence that can be achieved only through fuel choice and competition. And the first choice of sustainable energy is the clean and renewable energy. __________________

Global warming and its Effects

  

Outline

 

1.  Introduction

2.  What is global warming?

3.  Green house effect

4.  Evidences of global warming/climate change

a)  Temperature,

b)  Precipitation,

c)  Rise in sea level.

 

5.  Causes of global warming-emissions

6.  Sources of emissions

7.  Who are responsible for green house emissions?

8.  Possible impacts of global warming:

a)  Most affected would be marginalised communities,

b)  Coastal areas,

c)  Frequent and strong storms and floods,

d)  Health problems,

e)  Ecosystem destruction,

f)   Agricultural loss (Food insecurity).

 

9.     Unpredictable surprises

10.  Threshold level

11.  Strategies to mitigate global warming:

a)  Transforming to renewable sources of energy,

b)  Energy conservation and efficiency,

c)  Individual efforts.

 

12. Conclusion

 

 

Global warming is simply defined as an increase in the average global temperatures. Though, it is an environmental problem, it has serious implications on the global economics, geopolitics, society, humanity and all living beings. “Global warming is one of the most controversial science issues of the 21st century, challenging the very structure of our global society”, says Mark. Though, there has been controversies between two schools of scientific thought, one calling it is a myth and the other considering it is a reality, there is sufficient evidence to support the later. Anthropogenic activities, causing increased emissions of green house gases, are behind the global warming. It has been established, that, if not addressed properly and immediately, it would have catastrophic impacts.

 

Global warming means earth is becoming warmer gradually. There is increase in average global temperatures of air and oceans, accompanied by widespread melting of glaciers and rising of sea level. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its ‘Synthesis Report on Climate Change’, states that there is clear evidence for a 0.6 0C rise in global temperatures and 20cm rise in sea level during the 20th century. It predicts that “global temperatures could rise by 1.4 to 5.8 0C and sea level could rise by 20 to 88cm by the year 2100.” Majority of the scientists and research organisations, including IPCC have reached on consensus that global warming is caused by massive increase of green house gases such as Carbon dioxide (Co2) in atmosphere resulting from burning of fossil fuels and deforestation.

 

The temperature of earth is maintained by the balance between the heat energy coming from the sun and the heat energy returned back to space. Some atmospheric gases: Carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2OX), Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC) and water vapours are important to this temperature balance. They form the green house blanket in the atmosphere. This blanket absorbs some of the long wave radiation and re-radiate it back to surface, which causes the atmosphere to warm up to 350C. Without these gases the earth’s atmospheric temperature would be 15 to 200C. If more such gases are added to the atmosphere, the earth’s temperature would increase accordingly. And these are being added enormously.

 

This is why the global warming is taking place with greater pace due to the abundant increase in emissions. “The scientists community is largely persuaded that not only is earth’s climate warming, but rate of warming is accelerating due substantially to, human activity.” says Dr. Terrence M. Joyce, Senior Scientist and Director of Ocean & Climate Change Institute.

 

The main evidences of global warming are three basic indicators- temperature, precipitation and sea level. Firstly, the temperature of land surface, ocean waters and free atmosphere has been measured through fixed thermometers, balloons in the air and satellites. By these sources, scientists have produced record of last 130 years, which shows a global warming of 0.65(+ - 0.05degree C) over this period. We also know that 2010 was globally the warmest years on record.

 

Secondly, the recorded data of precipitation also reveals that there is upward trend in global precipitation. It shows that precipitation has increased over land at high latitudes in northern hemisphere, especially during cold seasons. As the cyclones, i.e. hurricanes, tornadoes, storms are closely related with the process of precipitation; the world has experienced more frequent and stronger hurricanes and storms during the recent past; Hurricane Katrina in the US in 2005 and 2010 Super Flood in Pakistan.

 

Thirdly, the global sea level has risen by about 20cm over the past 100 years. Initially, it was believed that the rise in sea level had occurred due to temperature increase as water expands on heating. But it has been revealed by relevant data that the 40 per cent increase in the sea level was due to warming and 60 per cent increase was due to melting of ice. This is pretty dangerous news as both the poles of earth are covered with ice- Arctic and Antarctic, with huge mass of ice. If melting is accelerated due to global warming it would cause catastrophic rise in oceans.

 

The magnitude of the impacts warrants seriously looking into the responsible factors for emissions in order to devise effective strategies to cope with this peril. There are many sources/agents which are responsible for emissions of green house gases – resulting mainly from the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. Industrial processes, power generation, transportation and domestic consumption of fossil fuels are major sources of anthropogenic emission. Unfortunately, the fossil fuel i.e. oil, coal, natural gas supply 85 per cent of energy supply whereas the clean forms of energy i.e. nuclear , biomass and hydrogen only form 15 per cent of energy supply.

 

On the other hand, cutting of trees for settlements and natural fire incidents like the summer fire in Australia and unusual fire in Russia in 2010, due to high temperatures, are also causing deforestation at massive level. In this way the forests, which are major source of balancing CO2, are also decreasing resulting in its increase in the atmosphere.

 

Since, the emissions are proportional to the consumption; these are not evenly distributed around the world. North America is a leading emitter followed by Europe and Asia. Together they make 90 per cent of the global industrially produced CO2. The developed countries have emitted much more than developing countries. Besides, the developing countries are striving for economic progress, subsequently increasing emissions as economic development is closely associated with energy production. Now, all the countries, particularly developed countries have to share responsibility to cut the emissions for the purpose of humanity otherwise we are going to suffer the possible implications.

 

Global warming is going to divest communities that are already the most marginalised in world. These are the communities that are least responsible for the industrial and historical emissions that created the problem. However, future climate change will have impacts on all parts of human society, including coastal regions, storms and floods, health and water resources, agriculture and biodiversity. Some of the impacts are discussed separately.

 

One; the coast line regions are most vulnerable. As the UN’s panel on climate has reported that sea level could rise by 20-88 cm in next 100 years, this is a serious problem for coastal areas which will be more prone to storms and floods. In response, the bigger and developed countries would have to build higher walls on the coasts but still they will have to lose some agricultural land. However, the small island countries like Maldives face dire situation. The sea rise would flood up the dry land, making these islands inhabitable. Another country, Bangladesh which is deltaic region would lose considerable portion of land and its agriculture – a prime source of livelihood there will be destroyed.

 

Two; storms and floods are major natural hazards. The records show that the temperature regions, particularly in the northern hemisphere, have witnessed more storms over the last 50 years. Two-fifth of the world population lives under the monsoon belt. Monsoons are caused mainly by temperature difference between oceans and continents. This difference will increase and the monsoons, which are normally life-giving rains, would exacerbate tremendously flooding the regions and destroying the agriculture – the major economic activity in the developing countries.

 

diseases and injury due to extreme events; increased frequency of diarrhea and cardiovascular diseases. By far the most important threat to human health is access to fresh drinking water. Though, the runoff is projected to increase by 10 to 40 per cent by mid century at higher latitudes but the negative impacts of global warming on fresh water system outweigh its benefits.

 

Currently, approximately 1.7 billion people, a third of world population, live in countries that are water stressed. IPCC suggests that with the projected global population increase and the expected climate change, five billion people may experience water stress by 2025.

 

Fourth; ecosystem which is an essential component for biodiversity, is going to be seriously affected by global warming. The species at maximum threats are: The mountain gorilla in Africa, amphibious Bengal tiger, polar bears and penguins, etc. The reason for threat to these species is that they are unable to migrate in response to climate change due to human activity and urbanisation. Another example of an ecosystem under threat is coastal protection. There are evidences that the coral reefs are diminishing due to temperature increase; which will disturb basic food chain in marine life.

 

Fifth; the most worrying concern of climate change is the effect it will have on agriculture. The world is already facing food crisis. According to UN, more than 800 million go to sleep hungry every night. Increase in temperature would have two effects: first, in higher latitudes it will increase food production due by moderating temperatures and increased CO2; it second, it will reduce the crop yield in the low latitudes due to higher temperatures and destruction of agricultural land by salinity. Generally, there will be a drop in food production in both the developed and less developed countries.

 

The above impacts assume that there is a linear relationship between the increase in temperatures and its implications. However, there is increasing concern among the scientists that climate change may occur abruptly and explode surprises for humanity- beyond its control. It is observed that environment is changing at a faster rate than expected. A report by a US National Academy of Science (NAS) says, “Available evidence suggests that abrupt climate changes are not only possible but likely in the future, potentially with large impacts on ecosystem and societies”.

 

Moreover, there is a point of no return- “threshold”, after which warming may become unstoppable. The earth’s climate can change abruptly when the responsible factors reach the thresholds. Most scientists think that the point lies not far beyond 20C hotter. It is the point at which anthropogenic warming can trigger huge release of Carbon dioxide from warming oceans or similar releases of both CO2 and CH4 from melting permafrost, or both. To limit warming to 20C we must stabilise concentration of green house gases in the atmosphere at a specific ‘stabilisation level’.

 

Knowing the dangerous consequences of inaction, the world needs to act to check the global warming. As the global warming is caused by anthropogenic emissions, the most logical approach to this problem would be to cut emissions significantly. This, however, has a major implication for the world economy- the energy of which is mainly based on fossil fuel burning. Several efforts have been spearheaded in the past but consensus has not been reached due to contentious position of some most industrialised countries.

 

From the Kyoto Protocol 1997 through Copenhagen, 2009 to Cancun Conference 2010, the world leaders have been unable to agree on substantial cuts in emissions and adequate funding for adoption. Though, there has been some progress in foundation work along with commitments from the world leaders to tackle this danger to planet earth, there is a long way to go for effective action.

 

Being the developed countries these are well equipped, technologically, to cut the emission by transforming their economies from fossil fuel-based energy to renewable resource energy. The solar energy available is the most abundant form of energy available to humans. Wind energy is another plenty source of energy. Nuclear source is also a non-pollutant source of energy. The developed countries should not only explode this source but they should also support/help the underdeveloped countries to generate electricity from this source. We need to understand that we have to switch over to these sources of energy as the fossil fuels are bound to be finished by the increasing levels of consumption; so why late, why not now?

 

Furthermore, the effort at the international level is not the only way to control global warming; all the people can play their individual role as well. After all are the end users of all that is produced in the industries and energy sector. Individuals can help reduce the green house emissions by many ways like: driving less, sharing a car with a friend or colleague to office, eating local, improving vehicles’ fuel efficiency, consuming less, using less electricity (and saving money), energy efficiency at work and home and by reducing waste products. These acts would serve the purpose of emission reduction in two ways: One; the less- consumption would result less production and subsequently less burning of fuels. Two; it will generate a moral pressure on the industries and governments to realise the dilemma and agree to the emission reduction policy.

 

There is a feasible counter balance to reduce CO2 from atmosphere by growing forests on land and vegetation in sea but it will not do much. Ultimately, a combination of improved energy efficiency and alternative energy resources is the way to mitigate global warming. Though it will cost us but ‘the earlier effective action is taken, the less costly it will be”, says Sir Nicholas Stern, the Chief Economist at World Bank. We need to act now, we need to act before it’s too late, as the major threat from global warming is its unpredictability.

 

The global warming has become the real test of the foundations of our modern society, civilisation and democracy. Its anthropogenic causes are amply proved. Its implications have started hitting humanity, which are too harmful to be ignored. The solutions are at hand. Therefore, the world leaders have responsibility to respond to it effectively for the cause of humanity - our future generation. “Climate change, and what we do about it, will define us, our era, and ultimately the global legacy we leave for future generations”, says Ban Ki Moon.